THE ESTIMATION OF THE WAR IN DONBAS BY SCIENTISTS AND FORMER POLITICIANS ON THE PAGES OF THE NEWSPAPER THE NEW YORK TIMES (MARCH 1, 2014 – FEBRUARY 11, 2015)

Abstract

The aim of the research is to analyze the opinions of scientists and former high-ranking politicians on the war in Donbas during March 1, 2014 and February 11, 2015 and on this basis to illustrate the best ways to end the conflict. The research methodology is based on the principles of scientificity, systematicity, verification, historicism and the use of general scientific (analysis, synthesis, generalization) and specially-historical (historical-genetic, historical-comparative, historical-typological, historical-systemic) methods as well as the method of content analysis. The scientific novelty is based on the fact that for the first time in the historiography of the war in Donbas, the views of scholars and former politicians on the war in Eastern Ukraine during March 1, 2014 and February 11, 2015 have been investigated. The Conclusions. The experts listed Russia’s efforts to prevent Ukraine’s accession to the EU and the NATO and the historical hostility between the Ukrainians and the Russians among the causes of the war in Donbas. Some analysts did not think Russia would try to invade Ukraine, but maintained that it would rather support the war in Donbas in order to prevent Ukraine from moving closer to the EU and the NATO. Other experts, meanwhile, believed that the Kremlin might not stop in Ukraine but use the Russians in the Baltic countries to create “frozen” conflicts there. The opinions on whether to provide weapon to Ukraine were divided. A number of analysts favoured this move, as it would cause more damage to Russia and deter it from a further aggression. In contrast, the others thought that providing Ukraine with weapon would only intensify the war against Russia, which Ukraine would not win, and which would be a humiliation for the EU, the USA and NATO. One way of resolving the war consisted in the full exhaustion of Russia by sanctions and other measures: Ukraine’s strengthening by the West through assistance with intelligence, non-lethal equipment, an information campaign, humanitarian aid, political and economic reforms, reaching a ceasefire, financing not only the Ukrainian government but also the Ukrainians. Another solution should be diplomatic, providing Donbas with autonomy within Ukraine transferring substantial local self-government powers to the Russian-speaking residents of the East.